About This Course
In today's regulatory and operational environment, subjective risk matrices and qualitative judgements are no longer sufficient for high-stakes safety decisions. Organisations operating in construction, manufacturing, oil and gas, mining, utilities, and public infrastructure are increasingly required to demonstrate rigorous, data-driven risk management — both to regulators and to their own leadership. Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA) provides the analytical backbone for this shift, transforming raw hazard data into defensible, numerical estimates of risk likelihood and consequence severity.
This five-day programme from TrainingComplex provides OHS practitioners, engineers, and safety managers with a structured, hands-on foundation in the core methods of quantitative risk assessment. Participants will work through the full QRA lifecycle — from hazard identification and data collection through probabilistic modelling, failure analysis, consequence assessment, and risk communication — using internationally recognised methodologies including Fault Tree Analysis (FTA), Event Tree Analysis (ETA), Bow-Tie modelling, and layer-of-protection analysis (LOPA).
The course is firmly grounded in real-world application. Case studies drawn from African and Gulf region industry sectors illustrate how QRA is applied under varying regulatory frameworks, data availability constraints, and resource environments. Participants leave with a toolkit of methods, worksheets, and software-ready templates they can apply immediately to their own workplace risk assessments, statutory submissions, and safety management system documentation.
Whether you are an experienced OHS professional looking to formalise your quantitative skills, an engineer transitioning into safety roles, or a safety manager tasked with upgrading your organisation's risk methodology, this course provides the rigour, practical competence, and professional confidence to elevate your risk assessment practice.
Who Should Attend
- Occupational Health and Safety Officers and Managers seeking to upgrade from qualitative to quantitative risk methods
- Process Safety Engineers and HSE Engineers in oil and gas, chemical, and manufacturing industries
- Construction Safety Professionals responsible for major project risk submissions
- Environmental Health and Safety (EHS) Coordinators in mining, utilities, and infrastructure
- Risk and Compliance Officers working within integrated safety management frameworks
- Regulatory and Government Safety Inspectors requiring deeper technical assessment skills
- Consultants providing safety case and risk assessment services to industrial clients
Learning Objectives
- Explain the principles and regulatory context of quantitative risk assessment within occupational health and safety frameworks
- Apply structured hazard identification techniques including HAZID, HAZOP, and What-If analysis as inputs to QRA
- Construct and evaluate Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) models to calculate probability of top events
- Develop Event Tree Analysis (ETA) models to assess accident sequences and outcome probabilities
- Build integrated Bow-Tie diagrams linking threat pathways, barriers, and consequences
- Apply Layer of Protection Analysis (LOPA) to determine the adequacy of safety barriers
- Use consequence modelling concepts to estimate injury, fatality, and damage zones for common industrial hazards
- Interpret and apply individual risk and societal risk criteria in line with international tolerability frameworks
- Analyse reliability and failure rate data from industry databases to support quantified assessments
- Communicate quantitative risk findings clearly to technical and non-technical stakeholders through risk registers, F-N curves, and safety reports
Course Modules
Module 1: Foundations of Quantitative Risk Assessment in OHS
- The risk assessment spectrum: qualitative, semi-quantitative, and quantitative approaches
- When and why QRA is required: regulatory drivers and industry standards (IEC 61511, ISO 31000, OSHA PSM)
- Key QRA terminology: hazard, threat, top event, consequence, likelihood, risk
- Overview of the QRA process lifecycle and its integration with OHS management systems
- Limitations and uncertainties inherent in quantitative risk methods
- Ethical and professional obligations when communicating numerical risk findings
Module 2: Hazard Identification as the Foundation of QRA
- Structured HAZID techniques: purpose, team composition, and documentation requirements
- HAZOP methodology: guide words, deviation analysis, and recording conventions
- What-If analysis: application and integration with quantitative follow-up
- Checklist-based hazard identification for routine and non-routine work activities
- Screening hazards for QRA eligibility: severity, novelty, and regulatory significance
- Documenting hazard identification outputs as formal QRA inputs
Module 3: Probability and Reliability Fundamentals
- Basic probability theory: independent events, conditional probability, and the multiplication rule
- Failure rate data: sources including OREDA, CCPS, and plant-specific maintenance records
- Mean Time Between Failures (MTBF) and Mean Time To Repair (MTTR) in safety contexts
- Demand rate versus failure on demand: understanding the distinction for safety instrumented systems
- Common cause failures and their impact on independent protection layer assumptions
- Uncertainty quantification: point estimates versus probability distributions in QRA
Module 4: Fault Tree Analysis (FTA)
- FTA logic gates: AND, OR, and voting gates — construction and interpretation
- Defining the top event and developing the fault tree hierarchy systematically
- Minimal cut sets: identification and their significance for risk reduction prioritisation
- Calculating top event probability using Boolean algebra and numerical methods
- Importance measures: Fussel-Vesely and Birnbaum importance in barrier prioritisation
- Common pitfalls in FTA construction and peer-review quality checks
Module 5: Event Tree Analysis (ETA)
- The initiating event concept and its relationship to FTA top events
- Constructing event tree branches: safety system responses and human interventions
- Assigning conditional probabilities to event tree branches using reliability data
- Calculating outcome frequencies for each accident sequence
- Linking FTA and ETA outputs to form a coherent accident frequency picture
- Interpreting ETA results to prioritise emergency response and mitigation investments
Module 6: Bow-Tie Analysis and Barrier Management
- Bow-Tie model structure: threats, top event, consequences, prevention and mitigation barriers
- Classifying barriers: engineered safeguards, administrative controls, and human factors
- Barrier effectiveness criteria: specificity, independence, auditability, and reliability
- Linking FTA and ETA outputs into an integrated Bow-Tie diagram
- Monitoring barrier performance using leading indicators and bow-tie performance metrics
- Using Bow-Tie results to update risk registers and safety management system controls
Module 7: Layer of Protection Analysis (LOPA)
- LOPA principles: independent protection layers (IPLs) and their credit criteria
- Initiating event frequency selection: process upsets, human error, and equipment failure
- Identifying and crediting IPLs: basic process control, safety instrumented systems, and relief devices
- Calculating mitigated event likelihood and comparing against risk tolerability targets
- Determining Safety Integrity Level (SIL) requirements from LOPA results
- Documenting LOPA findings for regulatory submission and management of change processes
Module 8: Consequence Modelling for OHS Risk Assessment
- Overview of consequence modelling approaches: source term, dispersion, and effect modelling
- Flammable hazard consequences: flash fire, vapour cloud explosion, and jet fire estimation methods
- Toxic release consequences: IDLH zones, ERPG levels, and simplified dispersion concepts
- Physical explosion consequences: overpressure damage zones and fragment hazard estimation
- Probit functions: translating physical effect levels into injury and fatality probabilities
- Using consequence modelling outputs to define hazard zones for land-use planning and emergency planning
Module 9: Risk Tolerability Criteria and Individual and Societal Risk
- Individual risk: definition, calculation methods, and international tolerability benchmarks (HSE, ALARP)
- Societal risk: the F-N curve — construction, plotting, and interpretation
- ALARP demonstration: cost-benefit analysis and gross disproportion in safety investment decisions
- Comparison of risk tolerability frameworks across jurisdictions: UK, Netherlands, Australia, and Gulf region
- Applying risk tolerability criteria to QRA outputs: accept, reduce, or reject decisions
- Documenting tolerability judgements in safety cases and major hazard facility reports
Module 10: Communicating QRA Findings and Embedding Results in OHS Systems
- Structuring a QRA report for technical and non-technical audiences
- Visualising risk: risk contour maps, F-N curves, and ranked risk registers
- Presenting uncertainty and sensitivity analysis results without undermining confidence
- Integrating QRA outputs into safety management system reviews, MOC processes, and incident investigation
- Using QRA results to set inspection frequencies, maintenance priorities, and emergency response triggers
- Capstone mini-project presentations: team QRA outputs reviewed against industry criteria and facilitator feedback
Requirements & Prerequisites
Participants should have a working background in occupational health and safety, engineering, or a closely related technical discipline. Familiarity with basic risk management concepts — such as hazard identification, risk matrices, and incident investigation — is expected. Prior exposure to mathematics at a high-school or technical college level, including basic probability and statistics, is sufficient; advanced mathematics is not required.
Training Methodology
- Guided worked examples using real industrial datasets to build FTA, ETA, and Bow-Tie models step by step
- Small-group case study workshops where teams analyse actual OHS incidents and reconstruct the quantitative risk picture
- Structured hazard identification exercises using HAZOP and What-If techniques applied to sector-specific scenarios
- Hands-on LOPA worksheets requiring participants to evaluate barrier adequacy for a given process scenario
- Consequence modelling demonstrations using tabular and graphical tools to estimate hazard zones without specialist software
- F-N curve plotting exercises to practise societal risk visualisation and tolerability judgement
- Peer review sessions in which participants critique each other's QRA outputs against industry criteria
- Brief daily reflection exercises linking each day's methods back to participants' own workplace contexts
- A capstone risk assessment mini-project completed in teams and presented on the final afternoon for facilitator and peer feedback
Organisational Benefits
- Transition from subjective risk matrices to defensible, numerically justified safety decisions
- Strengthen regulatory compliance by producing risk assessments that meet international QRA standards and statutory requirements
- Reduce incident frequency and severity through more accurate identification of critical failure pathways
- Improve resource allocation by targeting safety investments at the highest-risk barriers and controls
- Enhance the quality and credibility of safety cases, permit-to-operate submissions, and major hazard facility documentation
- Build internal QRA capability, reducing dependence on costly external consultants for routine assessments
- Support a stronger safety culture by grounding risk conversations in data and evidence rather than perception
- Equip safety teams to engage more effectively with engineers, regulators, and executive leadership on risk trade-offs
Where Is Quantitative Risk Assessment in OHS Training Offered?
This course runs in-person across: Abuja, Nairobi, Kigali, Johannesburg, Dubai, Kisumu, Addis Ababa, Pretoria, Naivasha, Arusha, Dar es Salaam, Accra, Zanzibar, Nakuru, Cape Town, Kampala, Lagos, Mombasa, Riyadh, plus Live Virtual (online) cohorts. Browse live dates for your city below.
Upcoming Schedules
| Location | Format | Dates | Price |
|---|
| Abuja, Nigeria |
In-Person |
5 Oct 2026 – 9 Oct 2026 |
USD 2,800 |
| Nairobi, Kenya |
In-Person |
5 Oct 2026 – 9 Oct 2026 |
KES 105,000 |
| Kigali, Rwanda |
In-Person |
12 Oct 2026 – 16 Oct 2026 |
USD 1,900 |
| Johannesburg, South Africa |
In-Person |
19 Oct 2026 – 23 Oct 2026 |
USD 3,500 |
| Dubai, United Arab Emirates |
In-Person |
19 Oct 2026 – 23 Oct 2026 |
USD 4,100 |
| Kisumu, Kenya |
In-Person |
19 Oct 2026 – 23 Oct 2026 |
KES 120,000 |
| Addis Ababa, Ethiopia |
In-Person |
19 Oct 2026 – 23 Oct 2026 |
USD 2,400 |
| Pretoria, South Africa |
In-Person |
19 Oct 2026 – 23 Oct 2026 |
USD 3,300 |
| Naivasha, Kenya |
In-Person |
19 Oct 2026 – 23 Oct 2026 |
KES 115,000 |
| Arusha, Tanzania |
In-Person |
19 Oct 2026 – 23 Oct 2026 |
USD 2,100 |
| Dar es Salaam, Tanzania |
In-Person |
19 Oct 2026 – 23 Oct 2026 |
USD 2,300 |
| Live Virtual |
Online |
19 Oct 2026 – 23 Oct 2026 |
KES 80,000 |
| Accra, Ghana |
In-Person |
19 Oct 2026 – 23 Oct 2026 |
USD 3,800 |
| Live Virtual |
Online |
24 Oct 2026 – 15 Nov 2026 |
KES 80,000 |
| Zanzibar, Tanzania |
In-Person |
26 Oct 2026 – 30 Oct 2026 |
USD 2,500 |
+234 more dates — view live schedule →
Frequently Asked Questions
Do I need a background in advanced mathematics or statistics to attend this course?
No advanced mathematics is required. The course uses probability concepts at a level accessible to anyone with high-school or technical college mathematics. The focus is on applying methods correctly rather than deriving them from first principles, and all calculations are worked through step by step during the programme.
Will participants receive a certificate upon completion?
Yes. Delegates who attend the full five-day programme and complete the capstone assessment exercise will receive a TrainingComplex Certificate of Completion in Quantitative Risk Assessment in OHS. This certificate documents the specific competencies covered and is suitable for inclusion in CPD portfolios and professional development records.
Is specialised software required, and will it be provided?
The course is designed to be software-neutral, using structured worksheets, templates, and graphical tools that participants can replicate in Excel or equivalent tools they already have access to. Demonstrations of dedicated QRA software are shown for awareness, but no licence purchase is required to participate or benefit fully from the programme.
What industries are the case studies drawn from?
Case studies are drawn primarily from oil and gas, manufacturing, construction, mining, and chemical processing, with some examples from utilities and public infrastructure. The methods taught are universally applicable across industrial sectors, and facilitators tailor discussions to the specific industry mix represented in each cohort.
Can my organisation send a team, and are group rates available?
Absolutely. Organisations are encouraged to send teams of safety professionals to build a shared QRA capability that can be immediately applied in-house. Group booking discounts are available for three or more participants from the same organisation — please contact TrainingComplex directly to discuss tailored pricing and, where appropriate, in-house delivery options.
