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Finance & Accounting

Credit Risk Measurement and Loss Given Default (LGD) Training

This intensive programme equips finance and risk professionals with the quantitative tools and regulatory frameworks needed to measure credit risk accurately and model Loss Given Default (LGD) with confidence. Participants will explore probability of default, exposure at default, recovery rate estimation, and Basel-aligned capital calculation methodologies. The course blends theoretical rigour with hands-on modelling exercises drawn from real banking and lending portfolios.

⏱ 5 Days 📡 In-Person 🎯 Intermediate From KES 80,000
🏦 Part of our Banking & Financial Services Industry Training Series — browse all related courses →

About This Course

Credit risk remains the single largest source of financial loss for banks, development finance institutions, and corporate lenders worldwide. The accurate measurement of credit risk — and in particular the estimation of Loss Given Default (LGD) — sits at the heart of sound lending decisions, regulatory capital adequacy, and portfolio management strategy. As Basel III and IFRS 9 requirements continue to reshape risk frameworks across emerging and developed markets, demand for practitioners who can build, validate, and interpret LGD models has never been greater.

This five-day training programme offered by TrainingComplex provides a comprehensive, practitioner-oriented grounding in credit risk measurement, with a deep focus on LGD estimation methodologies. Participants will move from foundational concepts — the credit risk triangle of probability of default (PD), loss given default (LGD), and exposure at default (EAD) — through to advanced model-building techniques, regulatory capital calculations under the Internal Ratings-Based (IRB) approach, and the treatment of collateral and recovery processes in LGD quantification.

The course is structured to balance conceptual rigour with practical application. Each module incorporates real-world data scenarios, worked calculation exercises, and case studies drawn from retail banking, corporate lending, and microfinance portfolios. Participants will leave equipped not only to understand LGD in theory, but to design, test, and challenge LGD models within their own institutions — satisfying both internal risk governance expectations and external regulatory scrutiny.

TrainingComplex's expert facilitators bring direct experience from banking supervision, credit portfolio management, and model validation, ensuring that every concept is anchored in current market practice and regulatory expectation.

Who Should Attend

Learning Objectives

Course Modules

Module 1: Foundations of Credit Risk: The Expected Loss Framework

  • The credit risk landscape: sources, types, and consequences of credit loss
  • The expected loss equation: PD × LGD × EAD unpacked
  • Differences between expected loss, unexpected loss, and economic capital
  • Regulatory versus accounting treatments of credit risk
  • Overview of Basel III and IFRS 9 frameworks and their LGD requirements
  • How LGD interacts with pricing, provisioning, and capital allocation decisions

Module 2: Understanding Default: Definitions, Triggers, and Data

  • Regulatory definition of default under Basel III Article 178
  • Past-due, unlikeness-to-pay, and technical default — identifying and classifying events
  • Building a default history database: data fields, cleaning, and quality checks
  • Default rate calculation: cohort analysis versus hazard rate approaches
  • Challenges of low-default portfolios and sparse data environments
  • Linking default definitions to recovery tracking and LGD observation windows

Module 3: Loss Given Default — Concepts, Types, and Drivers

  • Economic LGD versus accounting write-off: key distinctions
  • Workout LGD: the cash flow recovery model and net present value approach
  • Market LGD: using post-default trading prices and bond spreads
  • Implied market LGD: deriving estimates from credit default swap (CDS) spreads
  • Key drivers of LGD: collateral, seniority, industry, borrower size, and jurisdiction
  • The LGD distribution: why LGD is bimodal and what this means for modelling

Module 4: Collateral Valuation and Recovery Process Analysis

  • Types of collateral and their impact on LGD: real estate, financial assets, guarantees, and receivables
  • Haircut methodologies and supervisory versus internal haircut tables
  • Valuing collateral at time of default versus at time of recovery
  • Recovery process mapping: workout, legal, and out-of-court resolution paths
  • Recovery timing and the critical role of the discount rate in NPV calculations
  • Post-recovery costs: legal fees, administration, and their inclusion in LGD

Module 5: LGD Estimation Methodologies and Segmentation

  • Segmentation strategies: product type, collateral class, geography, and borrower segment
  • Ordinary least squares (OLS) regression for LGD modelling: assumptions and limitations
  • Tobit and beta regression models for bounded LGD distributions
  • Decision tree and scorecard-based LGD segmentation approaches
  • Treatment of incomplete workouts: cure rates, re-defaults, and right-censoring
  • Selecting and justifying the reference data period for LGD model development

Module 6: Downturn LGD and Through-the-Cycle Calibration

  • Why regulators require downturn LGD: the procyclicality problem
  • Identifying economic downturns and linking them to observed LGD deterioration
  • Methodologies for deriving downturn LGD: historical conditioning and add-on approaches
  • Through-the-cycle (TTC) versus point-in-time (PIT) LGD calibration: trade-offs and use cases
  • EBA guidelines on downturn LGD estimation: key requirements and implementation steps
  • Sensitivity analysis: how downturn assumptions move RWA and capital ratios

Module 7: IRB Capital Calculation Using LGD

  • Foundation IRB (F-IRB) versus Advanced IRB (A-IRB): when institutions use supervisor-supplied versus internal LGD
  • The Basel III IRB risk weight formula: inputs, outputs, and worked examples
  • Correlation parameters and maturity adjustment in corporate and retail exposures
  • Calculating risk-weighted assets (RWA) step-by-step using PD, LGD, and EAD
  • Capital floors and the output floor under Basel III finalisation (Basel IV)
  • Using LGD in economic capital models and RAROC-based pricing frameworks

Module 8: IFRS 9 Expected Credit Loss and Lifetime LGD

  • IFRS 9 ECL model architecture: three-stage classification and measurement
  • Differences between 12-month ECL and lifetime ECL — and the role of LGD in each
  • Forward-looking LGD: incorporating macroeconomic scenarios and probability weights
  • Mapping Basel LGD estimates to IFRS 9 LGD: key adjustments and overlays
  • Collective versus individual assessment of credit loss — treatment of homogeneous portfolios
  • Governance of ECL model overlays, management adjustments, and post-model judgements

Module 9: Model Validation, Back-Testing, and Benchmarking

  • Model validation principles: conceptual soundness, data quality, and discriminatory power
  • Back-testing LGD models: mean absolute error, RMSE, and bias ratio metrics
  • Rank-ordering and concentration tests for LGD model performance
  • Benchmarking internal LGD estimates against industry surveys and regulatory benchmarks
  • Designing a structured model validation report: findings, ratings, and remediation actions
  • On-going monitoring: triggers for model recalibration and annual review obligations

Module 10: Model Risk Governance, Documentation, and Regulatory Communication

  • The model risk management lifecycle: development, approval, use, and retirement
  • Documentation standards for LGD models: methodology papers, data books, and validation reports
  • Materiality assessment and model tiering for proportionate governance
  • Preparing for regulatory model review: what supervisors look for in IRB applications
  • Managing model limitations and overlays: disclosure to boards, auditors, and regulators
  • Building a credit risk model inventory and embedding LGD governance into the ICAAP

Requirements & Prerequisites

Participants should have a working knowledge of financial statements, basic credit analysis principles, and how bank lending products are structured. Familiarity with Excel-based financial modelling and a basic understanding of statistics — including regression concepts — is strongly recommended. Prior exposure to banking regulation or risk management frameworks such as Basel or IFRS 9 is helpful but not required, as the course introduces regulatory context from first principles.

Training Methodology

Organisational Benefits

Where Is Credit Risk Measurement and Loss Given Default (LGD) Training Offered?

This course runs in-person across: Dubai, Pretoria, Abuja, Addis Ababa, Nairobi, Zanzibar, Kisumu, Arusha, Nakuru, Kigali, Cape Town, Accra, Naivasha, Lagos, Mombasa, Riyadh, Johannesburg, Kampala, Dar es Salaam, plus Live Virtual (online) cohorts. Browse live dates for your city below.

Upcoming Schedules

LocationFormatDatesPrice
Live Virtual Online 19 Oct 2026 – 23 Oct 2026 KES 80,000
Live Virtual Online 24 Oct 2026 – 15 Nov 2026 KES 80,000
Dubai, United Arab Emirates In-Person 26 Oct 2026 – 30 Oct 2026 USD 4,100
Pretoria, South Africa In-Person 26 Oct 2026 – 30 Oct 2026 USD 3,300
Abuja, Nigeria In-Person 26 Oct 2026 – 30 Oct 2026 USD 2,800
Addis Ababa, Ethiopia In-Person 26 Oct 2026 – 30 Oct 2026 USD 2,400
Nairobi, Kenya In-Person 26 Oct 2026 – 30 Oct 2026 KES 115,000
Zanzibar, Tanzania In-Person 26 Oct 2026 – 30 Oct 2026 USD 2,500
Kisumu, Kenya In-Person 26 Oct 2026 – 30 Oct 2026 KES 120,000
Arusha, Tanzania In-Person 26 Oct 2026 – 30 Oct 2026 USD 2,100
Nakuru, Kenya In-Person 26 Oct 2026 – 30 Oct 2026 KES 120,000
Zanzibar, Tanzania In-Person 2 Nov 2026 – 6 Nov 2026 USD 2,500
Dubai, United Arab Emirates In-Person 2 Nov 2026 – 6 Nov 2026 USD 4,100
Nairobi, Kenya In-Person 2 Nov 2026 – 6 Nov 2026 KES 105,000
Nakuru, Kenya In-Person 2 Nov 2026 – 6 Nov 2026 KES 120,000

+227 more dates — view live schedule →

Frequently Asked Questions

Do I need to be a quantitative specialist to benefit from this course?

No. While the course covers quantitative modelling techniques, it is designed for finance and risk professionals with a solid grounding in credit analysis and basic statistics. Facilitators explain all modelling concepts step by step, and the Excel-based exercises are structured so that participants build understanding progressively without requiring advanced programming skills.

Will this course cover IFRS 9 provisioning as well as Basel capital requirements?

Yes. The programme dedicates a full module to IFRS 9 expected credit loss modelling, including forward-looking LGD, stage classification, and the reconciliation of IFRS 9 LGD estimates with Basel IRB parameters. Participants will understand both frameworks and the practical differences between them.

Is a certificate issued upon completion?

Yes. Participants who attend the full programme and complete the daily exercises will receive a TrainingComplex Certificate of Completion in Credit Risk Measurement and Loss Given Default (LGD). This certificate is suitable for inclusion in professional development portfolios and regulatory training records.

How practical are the exercises — will we work with real data?

All exercises use realistic, anonymised loan portfolio datasets constructed to reflect actual banking situations across retail mortgage, corporate, SME, and unsecured lending segments. Participants build and test LGD models in Excel during the course, leaving with working templates they can adapt for their own institutions.

Is this course relevant for institutions in emerging markets where recovery data is scarce?

Absolutely. The programme specifically addresses low-default portfolio challenges, sparse data environments, and the use of external benchmarks and expert judgement overlays — issues that are particularly acute in African, Middle Eastern, and other emerging market contexts. The case studies include examples from development finance and microfinance portfolios.

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